Trump's Iran Challenge: Projecting Confidence & Resolve, While Acknowledging Reality

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As the war with Iran enters its third week, President Trump faces an interesting challenge. Militarily, we have almost completely destroyed the Iranian air defenses, Air Force, and Navy. In addition, we have eliminated most of the government’s senior leadership, including the Ayatollah, and possibly his son. However, on the opposite side of the coin, the regime refuses to surrender. Whether they are replenishing the ranks, have a broad set of leaders able to work in the absence of others, or some combination of both, the government had not collapsed. Militarily, the regime is causing trouble with low-cost drones, portable rocket launchers along the coast, and speed boats, all of which are not easily stoped from the air, while also launching cyber attacks and unleashing terrorist proxies in the neighborhood. And sitting in Iran still, untouched, is their vast nuclear stockpile of uranium.

One of President Trump’s great strengths - both in business and politics - is his incredible energy and relentless determination to sell and create reality to achieve victory-as he defines it. Sometimes, the facts back him up from the beginning. Other times, they do not. As Trump writes in the Art of The deal, “when a reporter asks me a tough question, I try to frame a positive answer, even if that means shifting the ground.” He goes on to say, “the final key to the way I promote is bravado.”

Trump’s brand is to go big, be strong and tough so as not to let anyone gain psychological leverage by sensing weakness or desperation, be vague about desired outcomes, keep all options open, and just win, baby. What has helped with this makeup is that, no politician in the modern era, and few business people either, better understands the media than Trump. For the last fifty years, he has not only successfully engaged with it, but carefully kept an eye on the evolution of the products and business model. He understands the front end, the back end, and how people at home receive information. This asymmetric advantage has allowed Trump to often dominate events and singlehandedly shift public opinion. Iran, however, is proving to be the first time Trump’s playbook is struggling.

For the last two weeks, President Trump has spoken and posted on social media about “dominance," “control,” “destruction,” “decimation”, “obliteration," and “winning.” Often, he does it in his trademark way, that also implies ease and superiority. At the same time, however, not just on MSNow, but on FoxNews and “bro” podcasts, images and discussions of the challenges of the war are soberly discussed. From successful regional attacks, to the closure of the Strait and subsequent rise in oil prices, to what to do about the untouched nuclear material, to multiple attacks on our embassy in Iraq, to the sudden rushing of Marines to the region, people’s eyes and ears are wide open. I was struck the other morning, on Fox & Friends, when, as they were awaiting the start of Secretary of War Hegseth’s briefing, one of the hosts said, "I don’t want to just hear about firepower, but the plan” for going forward.

The challenge for President Trump is to show strength, determination and resolve, while also acknowledging the challenges, hardships and costs that have been and will need to be beared in this war. He also needs to level with the public about the true goals, so that people know for what they are sacrificing. Such public empathy and shades of grey don’t come easy for the President. But, if the war continues to drag on and he cannot thread this needle, the mortal danger is that, once you lose the public’s trust, it is almost impossible to win it back.